Will a wet autumn ruin the UK high street?

It’s been a wet year for the UK, with some areas experiencing record-breaking rainfall.

But, despite the passing footfall with their abundance of soaked umbrellas, soggy Primark bags and rain-filled welly boots, the UK’s high street has felt the pinch from the seasonal bleakness so far this year.

Now, as autumn rolls around, what will the weather look like? And will we see the same grim effects of the last rainy seasons?

Weather woes have dampened high street sales

Rainfall was 27% more than average in March 2024, and buyers’ spending habits started to dull.

Cathy Parker, Professor in Retail at Manchester Metropolitan University, draws close associations between the decline in footfall and the simple fact that people “don’t like to get wet”.

“Even the time of year affects how much wet weather impacts footfall,” she added. “For example, at Easter, bad weather can reduce footfall by around 5%.”

According to the Office of National Statistics (ONS), the number of items bought across the UK fell by 2.3% in April 2024. This followed a month of storms and heavy rainfall, with several flood warnings issued across the country. Clothing, sports equipment and toy stores were particularly hit hard, with a decline of 4.1%.

“April’s retail sales were more disappointing than expected, once again being dampened by wet weather, deterring shoppers from the high street and impacting the sale of seasonal items,” Oliver Vernon-Harcourt, Head of Retail at Deloitte commented. 

“Though consumer confidence continues to rise, many remain apprehensive and are not yet loosening their purse strings, especially on non-essential items and goods such as clothing and footwear.

Away from the high street, there’s better news for ecommerce. The ONS reported that it saw a 2.1% increase within the same period in the amount of customers spending online because of the bad weather.

What’s the forecast for autumn?

The bleak weather at the beginning of the year was less than favourable for high street retailers, but will there be more to come?

Right now, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. According to a report by Netweather, temperatures in October may be above average, but there might also be spells of wet weather at times. On the whole, rainfall is expected to be below average for the whole month.

But worse is potentially to come. November is predicted to have more unsettled weather, with potential Atlantic storms across the country. Outside of these events, general rainfall is expected to be average. In all, there might not be the same amount of rainy days as we had during the springtime, which could be a boost for retailers in the run up to Christmas.

Wet September bucks the trend

It’s not all doom and gloom when the rain clouds come out. Despite another wet month in September – with some areas experiencing three or four times the average rainfall – the number of total retail sales increased by 2.0% year-on-year (YoY). This put it above the 12-month average growth of 1.1%. 

Meanwhile, non-food transactions declined 0.3%, but the British Retail Consortium (BRC) reassured that this figure wasn’t as bad as expected.

BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said: “As autumn rolled out across the UK, shoppers sought to update their wardrobes with coats, boots and knitwear. The start of the month [September] also saw a last-minute rush for computers and clothing for the new academic year.”

We can’t truly predict what the weather will look like for the rest of autumn. However, given the successful rates of sales during the back to school rush in September and the upcoming shopping season, the high street could yet weather this storm.