Research shows confidence is low among SMEs in the run-up to the Autumn Budget.
SMEs are far from optimistic about the prospect of good news in the Autumn Budget.
New research reveals that more than three in four business leaders have little to no confidence that November’s Budget will support growth.
And, while 56% respondents anticipate an uplift in revenue, more than a fifth expect profitability to fall in the next 12 months.
Only one in ten expect any improvement in the wider economy, underlining the deep sense of caution and concern among UK SMEs.
Where business leaders see hope – and pressure
The figures come from Vistage, a global business performance and leadership organisation, which published its quarterly CEO Confidence Index for 2025.
The results reflect an overall dip in confidence, with the index falling to 88 in Q3 2025, down from 89.5 in Q2 and 107.1 a year ago.
Much of this decline stems from the precarious state of the economy. While 57% of SMEs expect revenue growth, at the same time, 22% predict a drop in profitability. To survive this period of instability, 42% of businesses plan to raise prices in the coming months, while 19% have already increased prices by 7–10% this year.
At the same time, one in four businesses report a drop in consumer demand and spending. This creates a difficult balancing act: raising prices enough to stay afloat without totally alienating your customer base.
Autumn Budget and SME priorities
The Autumn Budget has the power to shift the economy, but most SMEs aren’t convinced it will deliver in their favour. Vistage’s index shows that 76% of leaders lack confidence that the Chancellor will introduce policies to support growth.
In an ideal world, more than half of respondents (58%) say cutting business taxes, such as Corporation Tax or Employer National Insurance, would be their top priority.
Other requests include investment in infrastructure (20%), reducing regulatory burdens (10%), targeted investment incentives (9%), and labour market support (4%).
In our report on what the upcoming Budget might contain, we found that many founders are pressing for a reversal of recent employer National Insurance (NI) hikes, alongside a clear commitment not to raise taxes further.
Industry groups, such as UKHospitality, have also been pressing for reform of business rates and NI contributions, as well as a reduced VAT rate for the sector, already demonstrated by many EU countries.
But sadly, expectations may fall short of reality. Economists estimate the Chancellor may need to find as much as £40bn, so tax rises look increasingly likely, while generous support packages appear less so.
Are people still the greatest asset?
Despite these pressures, SMEs remain committed to growth through their workforce. The Vistage survey shows that 37% plan to expand their teams over the next 12 months.
Rebecca Drew, Managing Director of Vistage UK and Ireland, said: “While leaders are grappling with rising costs, weaker customer demand, and uncertainty around government policy, many are still focused on growth — planning to expand their team and invest in employee engagement.”
However, the labour market presents its own challenges. Industries continue to struggle with hiring, while wider trends complicate recruitment. At the end of August, it was revealed that hospitality has accounted for more than half of all job losses in the UK since last October.
The rise of AI adoption and outsourcing to freelance virtual assistants has raised concerns over job security and team morale. SMEs can usually rely on the Budget to ease the uncertainty over the next year, but it seems that few are depending on that this autumn.
