Burnham’s promises won’t pay my rent

I feel like Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham’s latest campaign trail pledges were a masterclass in how politicians use the hospitality sector as an easy PR playground.

Running as Labour’s by-election candidate in Makerfield, Burnham turned on his national leadership, promising to reverse the tax rises that have hit high streets this year – permanently cutting business rates for pubs by 20%, slashing employer National Insurance contributions and bringing VAT down from 20% to 10%.

Unsurprisingly, industry heavyweights like Tom Kerridge – whose #VATstheproblem petition is nearing a massive 200,000 signatures – have been quick to back him. And on paper, Andy does look like the saviour of hospitality. But if, like me, you actually run an independent kitchen, bar or pub, you shouldn’t be changing your financial forecasts just yet based on what is essentially beautiful by-election bait.

It’s easy to promise a 10% VAT rate, lowered National Insurance, and a business rates overhaul when you are trying to win a local seat and you don’t actually hold the keys to the Treasury. It costs Burnham absolutely nothing to stand in front of a family-owned pub and say his national party got it all wrong. But independent hospitality owners are drowning today.

Since the Autumn Budget tax increases took effect, the sector has suffered over 89,000 job losses due to the skyrocketing employer NI burden alone. One in seven venues is currently on the brink of structural closure. We are operating in a perfect storm of inflation, staff shortages and supply chain shocks.

We don’t need long-term political manifestos or hypothetical tax overhauls timed perfectly for a polling day. We need immediate, structural relief from the current government.

Until Burnham’s pledges are written into a binding national budget, my advice is not to let political optimism distract you from your immediate cash-flow defence. It’s like a Friday night booking for a table of twelve that didn’t leave a credit card deposit. It looks fantastic on your system, but it means absolutely nothing to your actual revenue until they actually show up.

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