Why do shops sell mince pies in September?

You’ve hardly had time to pack away the barbecue. Visit your favourite supermarket, however, and you’ll be able to shop online for a case of mince pies. They’ve been there since late August.

Other seasonal goods are already on the shelves, including pumpkin-wrapped chocolate balls for Halloween, and fireworks for Bonfire Night. Every year it seems to come earlier, and yet Brits still get a cheap thrill from commenting “but summer’s barely over!”.

It’s not all a big conspiracy. Known as ‘Christmas creep’ or ‘holiday creep’, the trend has been around since the mid-1980s, and it makes sense when you know the reason why.

There is a business reason that you can buy an advent calendar three months before December 1. Below, we’ll explain the method behind the madness and why timing the release of stock is such a key challenge for retailers.

Why is it Christmas in September?

Retail analysts offer differing theories on why Christmas creep occurs. One explanation is profits. Firms often refer to the period of October and December as ‘the golden quarter’, when spending can double or triple. For some retailers, it can make or break their year.

As companies compete for the best performance, holiday creep is an example of aggressive tactics to win sales. A head start will be key this year due to the cost of living crisis. Shoppers are more likely to spend if they can spread purchases over an extended period.

Like much of marketing, holiday creep is also psychological. If you can get Santa in front of shoppers early, they’ll start thinking about what to buy earlier, also boosting sales.

Then there are more practical reasons. Retailers might be trying to flog old stock that’s been stored and gathering dust from the last Halloween or Easter. They might even have sold their summer inventory quicker than expected, and just need something to fill the space.

Why holidays give us the creeps

For those who feel comfortable listening to ‘Jingle Bells’ in June, it’s hard to see the problem with a festive window display. Whatever the reason, Christmas creep can also cause intense dislike among consumers; as unwanted as a snowball to the face.

For the same reason that an early birthday present feels like cheating, seeing plastic bats and cobwebs can make things feel less special when Halloween night rolls around.

Despite this, the technique seems to work for retail. One survey carried out in 2016 found that by October, around 40% of consumers have started making a mental list for Christmas. By November, more than 80% of consumers are actively buying gifts.

There can be an advantage to embracing the creep. Many stores release old Christmas stock on discount in early October so savvy shoppers can snag a steal.

Tesco has already revealed it will slash the prices of Quality Street and Cadbury boxes this month. Meanwhile, the Amazon Prime Day mega sale comes in October, swiftly followed by November’s Black Friday, providing a great opportunity to cross things off your shopping list.

It’s all about timing

Like much of retail, striking the right balance between holiday cheer and holiday creep comes down to timing. You need to be able to predict when the items in your inventory will be most in-demand. And getting this purchasing pattern wrong can be disastrous.

Ordering in seasonal stock early allows retailers to manage cash flow, and accumulate the right amount of stock ahead of busier months. However, it means betting on customer needs, which can be as unpredictable as the weather.

Marks & Spencer said last week that during a wet week this summer, “raincoat” was the most popular item on its site. The retailer was underprepared, having stocked up on shorts.

Outside of just seasonal trends, businesses must also consider product lead time before ordering stock (calculated as the date of delivery minus the date when the order was placed). If supplier delays are not factored in, merchandising plans can be ruined.

Having a detailed marketing plan, with your sales promotions mapped out, is the best way to manage seasonal stock. Holiday creep may irritate some shoppers. But when December 1 rolls around, retailers will be kicking themselves if they’ve left their Christmas lists too late.