How your business can capitalise on the summer sun and the way it impacts consumer behaviour

As temperatures climb across the UK this summer, so does consumer spending, but not in the way most businesses assume. 

Studies suggest that a sun-soaked “treat yourself” mentality can be just as powerful a driver of spending as high street footfall, especially for businesses that are smart enough to adjust their marketing strategy accordingly.

However, as unprecedented temperatures force many shoppers into survival mode, it appears that the opposite can also be true. So, with a third heatwave already hitting southern parts of the UK, we explore what impact surging temperatures have on spending, and how businesses can weather-proof their sales strategy this summer.

Heat hedonism: the psychological reason why sales spike in the summer

When the sun comes out, so do the crowds – flocking to parks, beer gardens and high streets. But a major reason shoppers spend more in the summer isn’t purely their closer proximity to shops and venues.

According to research published in the Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, longer daylight hours and a boost in serotonin can result in a “treat-yourself” mentality, where impulsivity surges as people look for ways to reward themselves. Compare this with the cognitive control that melts away when temperatures rise above 26 degrees Celcius, and you’ve got a recipe for looser purse strings. 

Amelia Christie-Miller, founder of Bold Bean Co, describes this summer optimism in a recent LinkedIn post. When she found that supermarket footfall in the bean category was down 5% throughout the summer period, yet her foodservice sales to fancy delis like Farmer J, Atis, and The Salad Project were up 160% in the same week, she put it down to a shift in consumer mindset. 

“We stop thinking ‘I’ll cook something simple at home’ and start thinking ‘let’s eat out properly,'” Christie-Miller explained when talking about how Brits are trading grocery aisle traipsing for eating exciting meals out.

What happens when we reach melting point? How the UK’s heatwaves impact spending

Summer spending doesn’t remain consistent as the mercury rises, however. 

With the UK already witnessing several periods of excessively hot weather this summer, and the government recently sounding the amber heat alert for what could be one of the longest heatwaves since 1976, experts have found that in certain markets, hikes in temperature can have an adverse effect on customer spend.

For example, researchers from the University of California found that while alcohol sales surge when temperatures reach up to 32 degrees Celsius, beyond which the positive effect was much smaller.

There’s a ceiling to how much heat actually works in a brand’s favour, as Marten Lodwijks, president of drinks market research firm IWSR, told Reuters: “Generally, warm weather is good for consumption. But there is also an upper limit … beyond which it’s just uncomfortably hot.”

But not every sector wilts during unprecedented heatwaves. Major retailers have seen the opposite effect, with electronics retailer Curry’s reporting that fan sales spiked by nearly 3,000% during peak heatwave weekend.

Online retailers selling lightweight bedding and summer clothes have seen similar successes, with online non-food sales jumping by 10.6% during May’s heatwave alone as physical stores struggle to compete with the comfort of shopping from home. 

It’s proof that UK heatwaves don’t switch spending off; it just redirects it – opening up opportunities for brands to meet shoppers where their habits are at.

What businesses can do to cash in on the summer sun

With the UK’s extreme climate changing like the, well, weather, building flexibility into your offering is the best way to keep pace with shifting demands. 

For drinks retailers, as extreme heat pushes drinkers away from full-strength alcohol, adapting quickly is vital. Carlsberg is one example, with the Danish brewer switching gears to focus on low-and-no-alcohol beers and soft drinks, Kristan Henningsen, the company’s Head of Public Affairs, told Reuters. 

This same tactic can be used by retailers. Using dynamic demand forecasting based on live weather data and short-term sales trends allows businesses to spot changes in customer behaviour early, before adjusting stock and pricing accordingly. This allows retailers to have the right products at the right price before a heatwave hits, rather than scrambling to restock once shelves are already empty. 

The customer experience is equally important. With temperatures expected to exceed 30°C  in certain areas of the UK during the next heatwave, retailers and hospitality venues alike should look to create ‘cool spaces’ for customers seeking refuge from extreme heat. This could involve positioning fans by the doors in a retail environment, or offering ample shade in outdoor venues. 

Finally, brands can harness this “treat-yourself” mindset with their marketing. This can be as simple as fashioning a pub chalkboard advertising a frozen cocktail, or advertising a discount on meals, or as sophisticated as launching a marketing campaign that taps into impulsive spending once the temperature reaches a certain threshold. 

Ultimately, higher temperatures won’t impact spending in a single, predictable way. But staying attuned to changes in the forecast and acting accordingly can help business owners keep a cool head this summer.