Nationwide predicts more than 12 million Black Friday transactions — and a solid £123 average online spend. What does this mean for ecommerce SMEs?
Nationwide is predicting more than 12 million transactions this Black Friday, even as UK households continue to feel the cost-of-living squeeze.
Shoppers are still prepared to spend on the annual shopping event, with an average splurge of £123 per shopper expected to go on online deals.
Younger adults seem to be leading the charge. According to the report, those aged 25–34 are projected to spend more than double the average, at around £255 each.
With ecommerce and social commerce now taking up an ever larger slice of the retail landscape, Black Friday could deliver a crucial injection of pre-Christmas cash flow for SMEs if they prepare properly.
Why are shoppers still spending this Black Friday?
Nationwide’s Black Friday report forecasts a busy November. Millions of card transactions are expected over the course of the infamous Black Friday and Cyber Monday, suggesting that the appetite for discounted online purchases remains high.
Even with ongoing pressure on household budgets, a good deal is hard to resist, especially in the run-up to Christmas.
And shoppers are starting earlier. Nationwide’s research indicates early deal-hunting, with people building wishlists and adding items to baskets ahead of time. With online stores also spreading deals out throughout November, Black Friday is no longer just limited to one day.
Cost-of-living anxiety and low consumer confidence are still quietly tempering behaviour, though. Almost four in ten consumers say they won’t buy anything at all on Black Friday.
For those who do plan to spend, value-led shopping is driving a surge in transactions. Essentials, useful home upgrades like air fryers and coffee machines, are still priorities.
And crucially, online shopping remains the default. Half of consumers plan to shop online, and social platforms are becoming a key part of the journey. 25% are expected to buy through TikTok or Instagram, while many more (34%) will shop directly on retailers’ apps.
What this means for your online store
For ecommerce businesses, there’s a clear opportunity to benefit from Black Friday this year.
If each customer is predicted to spend £123 on average, it gives sellers room to upsell with bundles, add-ons, or higher-margin items.
Younger shoppers aged 25–34 are expected to spend the most, at around £255 each. They’re also the demographic most likely to browse and buy through social-first channels, from TikTok Shop to Instagram Reels.
This makes discovery on social platforms essential. Early-bird promotions, retargeting people who’ve saved items in their baskets, and tightening up product pages will all make a difference. Make sure to update your sites with clear images, short descriptions, and fast-loading pages.
Social-first marketing will also help attract shoppers. Creator demos, shortform videos, and native TikTok Shop listings give smaller retailers a chance to advertise products to shoppers where they’re already scrolling.
How SMEs can make the most of it
If you’re unprepared, even small spikes in order can be overwhelming. Therefore, it’s important to properly forecast stock and fulfilment capacity, and get your returns processes ready for the increased volume.
Next, refine your pricing strategy. Limited-time offers, bundled discounts, and value-based messaging can all help sway hesitant shoppers. And with delivery expectations higher than usual, it’s better to be transparent about shipping timelines rather than overly optimistic.
Finally, remember that beyond a flash sale, Black Friday can also be a retention moment. A smooth buying experience can turn one-time deal-hunters into long-term, loyal customers.
